As the November 3rd midterm elections quickly approach, California voters should prepare to face one of the longest and most comprehensive ballots of the last several election cycles. From electing a governor to voting in newly drawn congressional districts to choosing candidates for state and local offices, and understanding the additional initiatives, voters will notice a crowded landscape of competing priorities and candidates on this year's ballot.
While the candidate pool will narrow following the June 2nd primary elections, the list of ballot initiatives will increase as measures meet the signature thresholds and become certified by the California Secretary of State (SOS) office to appear on the ballot.
To date, up to 36 total statewide initiative proposals have been submitted to the SOS for potential placement on the 2026 ballot, triggering a separate race to collect the required number of signatures needed to qualify. Initiative statutes require valid signatures equal to five percent of votes cast for governor in the last election, which means that 545,651 valid signatures are needed for the 2026 cycle. Initiative constitutional amendments require signatures equal to eight percent of those votes, totaling 874,641 valid signatures needed.
Collecting signatures in this busy environment is competitive and expensive. Campaigns must far exceed the minimum number of signatures in order to compensate for the high rate of invalid signatures rejected during the SOS certification process. As a result, simply qualifying an initiative has become a costly undertaking for sponsors.
According to Ballotpedia.org, the cost-per-required-signature (CPRS) for citizen-initiative measures in California have varied widely—from a high of $21.98 for Prop 31, the 2022 Flavored Tobacco Products Ban, upheld by 63.42% of voters, to a low of $0.96 for Prop 2, the 2008 Farm Animal Confinement Initiative, also passed by 63% of voters.
How many proposals will ultimately reach the ballot remains uncertain this early in the cycle. Based on spending levels from the 2024 election, sponsors should expect to spend roughly $3.8 million to $7.2 million or more on paid signature collection alone. This represents one of the largest upfront costs of any initiative campaign, driven by how competitive the signature gathering market becomes and how aggressively each campaign moves to qualify early.
Gabriela Villanueva is CAP’s Government and External Affairs Analyst. Questions or comments related to this article should be directed to GVillanueva@CAPphysicians.com.
Sources
California Secretary of State. “Qualified Ballot Measures.” https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/qualified-ballot-measu….
Ballotpedia. “California Ballot Initiative Petition Signature Costs.” https://ballotpedia.org/California_ballot_initiative_petition_signature….
CalMatters. “California Ballot Measures 2024: What’s on the Ballot and What Signature-Gathering Costs Look Like.” https://calmatters.org/explainers/california-ballot-measures-2024/.